Article by:
Stephanie Sevillano
MANILA – The Department of Agriculture (DA) on Tuesday assured that mitigation measures are in place as the government prepares for the possible effects, including the worst-case scenario, of the continuous fuel price hikes due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
During the hearing of the Senate Response and Oversight for Timely and Effective Crisis Strategy (PROTECT) Committee, Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. said efforts are underway to cushion the impact on Filipino farmers, fishers, and consumers.
“Food security is not just an agricultural issue; it is national stability. Our task is to ensure that the system absorbs the shock rather than amplifies it,” he said.
Although current prices of basic agricultural commodities remain at pre-conflict levels, the DA projected price spikes across goods should the global crude price hit USD200 per barrel if tensions persist for up to 180 days.
Tiu Laurel said the agency has six steps to address the rising costs of fuel, fertilizer, freight, and logistics costs, among others.
“Our response has six priorities. First, strengthen domestic production by supporting key crops, distributing certified and climate-resilient seeds, and improving extension services,” Tiu Laurel said. "Second, mitigate input cost by fuel subsidies, the use of biofertilizers, organic alternatives, and diversify fertilizer sources.”
In terms of logistics, the DA highlighted investments in cold chain facilities, farm-to-market roads, and the need to talk with ports and transport groups.
It is also eyeing diversifying its farm inputs and food sources.
“Fifth, protect consumers by price monitoring, targeted food assistance, strategic buffer stock releases and impose price caps when needed,” Tiu Laurel said.
For the long-term strategy, the DA said the Philippines will advance agricultural resilience through farm consolidation, digitalization, and climate adaptation.
According to the DA’s “worst-case scenario” projection, the 19.87 million metric tons (MT) projected local palay (unhusked rice) production may slightly contract due to high fertilizer prices.
For the first semester of 2026, local rice output may drop by 11,868 MT, and for the second semester, by 112,522 MT.
For retail prices, well-milled rice may incur a 49 percent jump in retail prices, equivalent to PHP67 per kg. from the PHP45 per kg. pre-conflict levels.
Asked about the timeline for when the oil price surges might spill over to retail rice, Tiu Laurel said effects may be felt around August.
He, however, assured that prices may be tamed with adequate support for local food producers and flexibility to diversify sources of agricultural inputs and goods for the welfare of both farmers and consumers.
The worst-case scenario projection also showed that chicken prices may increase to PHP324 per kg. from PHP200 per kg.; followed by pork ham and belly, at PHP558.10 per kg. and PHP588 per kg. from PHP350 per kg. and PHP370 per kg., respectively.
Tiu Laurel said the local poultry industry has a bit of overproduction, which will help tame prices.
For pork stock inventory, he said there’s sufficient volume in cold storage, but prices may be affected by exchange rates and freight costs.
Overall, Tiu Laurel said the agency must have the capacity to balance both the support to local farmers and consumers through diversification of importation sources and possible lowering of tariffs, if needed. (PNA)
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